Blog

Posts, updates, and occasional notes that sit alongside The Butterfly Effect.

Rollo, Duke of Normandy, from a 13th-century roll of the Norman dukes

Not So Simple After All

Jul 11, 2026By Andy Barca

In the autumn of 911, Charles the Simple gave the Viking warlord Rollo a stretch of land around Rouen he could not defend anyway. No copy of the deal survives, and the best account of it was written a century later by a chronicler paid to flatter Rollo's descendants. Out of that shaky record came Normandy, and eventually England's ruling class.

The Streatham portrait of Lady Jane Grey, 1590s

Nine Days and a Scaffold

Jul 10, 2026By Andy Barca

On 10 July 1553, Lady Jane Grey was proclaimed Queen of England. She was sixteen, Protestant, and a pawn in a plot to keep Mary Tudor off the throne. Nine days later the Privy Council abandoned her. Within a year she was dead.

Portrait of Catherine II of Russia by Fyodor Rokotov, after Alexander Roslin, 1780s

The Uniform She Borrowed

Jul 9, 2026By Andy Barca

On 9 July 1762, Catherine rode into St Petersburg in a borrowed Guards uniform, won over three regiments in a morning, and forced her husband, Peter III, to sign away the Russian throne by nightfall. He was dead within eight days; she reigned for the next thirty-four years.

Battle of Poltava, 1709, painting by Pierre-Denis Martin, 1726

The Chair on the Battlefield

Jul 8, 2026By Andy Barca

On 8 July 1709, Peter the Great crushed Charles XII's Swedish army at Poltava. Charles fought from a litter with a bullet wound in his foot. Nine years of Swedish invincibility ended in an afternoon, and Russia stepped into the space it left behind.

Portrait of Tsar Alexander I of Russia by George Dawe, c. 1818–1825

Two Emperors on a Raft

Jul 7, 2026By Andy Barca

On 7 July 1807, France and Russia signed the Treaty of Tilsit after a staged reconciliation on a raft in the Neman. Prussia was carved in half two days later. The alliance it built was the high point of Napoleon's power and the start of its unravelling.

AK-47 assault rifle, Soviet 7.62mm design

The Day That Wasn't

Jul 6, 2026By Andy Barca

Popular history says the AK-47 went into production on 6 July 1947. Soviet trial records say the rifle didn't exist yet that week, and had just failed its tests. What emerged from the redesign armed a hundred million people anyway.

Portrait of Sir Isaac Newton, 1689, by Godfrey Kneller

Paid for in Fish

Jul 5, 2026By Andy Barca

On 5 July 1687, Isaac Newton's Principia Mathematica came off the press in London. The Royal Society had already spent its year's budget on a book about fish, so Edmond Halley paid the printing costs himself and talked Newton out of pulling the whole thing over a priority dispute with Robert Hooke.

The United States Declaration of Independence, 1776

Don't Bet Against the Colony

Jul 4, 2026By Andy Barca

On 4 July 1776, the Second Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, a treason confession from thirteen colonies with no army, no navy and no treasury. Two hundred and fifty years on, the doubters are still losing.

Enver Bey and Niyazi Bey, leaders of the Young Turk Revolution, 1908 postcard

The Sultan Who Blinked

Jul 3, 2026By Andy Barca

On 3 July 1908, Major Ahmed Niyazi raided an armoury in Macedonia and marched into the mountains demanding a constitution. Three weeks later Sultan Abdul Hamid II gave in. The men who forced him did not just modernise the Ottoman Empire - they eventually organised a genocide and dragged it into the First World War.

Brazilian army entering Salvador after the siege, 1823

Eighty-Three Ships in the Dark

Jul 2, 2026By Andy Barca

On 2 July 1823, a Portuguese garrison slipped out of Salvador aboard 83 ships after a 16-month siege, ending three centuries of colonial rule in Brazil. The war that actually won Brazil's independence looked nothing like the schoolbook version.